Newcastle vs Southhampton on 17/8/24: Match Preview

Russell Martin is no slouch of a coach. Tactically adept and with well-coached plays moving forward he has managed to elevate multiple squad members to reach a premier league standard. But they are not without some glaring weaknesses and flaws that we should be able to exploit with minimal threat if we take them seriously.

Let’s break down the stats of this game based on our expected style and formation against theirs.

1. Current Newcastle United Tactics at Home

As last season progressed, we continued to refine our tactical framework, particularly through a 4-3-3 formation, which has been a cornerstone during home matches. This setup allows us to maximize our attacking prowess while maintaining defensive stability, key elements as we prepare to face Southampton.

2. Current NUFC Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Improved Goalkeeping with Pope:
  Since joining the squad, Nick Pope has substantially bolstered Newcastle's defensive capabilities. His remarkable shot-stopping ability has brought down the team's expected goals against (XGA) from 1.9 without him to 1.07 with him. This enhancement is crucial, offering a solid backbone against teams like Southampton.

• Offensive Output at Home:
  Newcastle has proved particularly dangerous offensively, boasting an XG of 2.4 at home. Their forward line thrives in open play, efficiently converting scoring opportunities.

• Tactical Versatility Against Different Styles:
  Against possession-based opponents, Newcastle excels by capitalizing on counter-attacks, often generating higher XG despite having less possession. Their strategy against pressing teams is also effective, creating high XG opportunities through end-to-end play, although typically conceding more goals.

Weaknesses:

• Vulnerability in Transition and Space Behind Fullbacks:
  Newcastle's aggressive style often leaves significant space behind their fullbacks, making them prone to quick transitions, especially from sides with fast wingers.

• High Defensive Line Against Quick Attacks:
  The high defensive line Newcastle deploys can be a double-edged sword, particularly against Southampton's quick forwards and varied attack strategies. This setup requires impeccable back-line coordination and keen anticipation from Pope.

• Struggles Against Defensive/Mixed Styles:
  Teams adopting a defensive or mixed style can sometimes stifle Newcastle’s open-play strengths. Southampton's tactical flexibility means they could adopt such a posture, potentially limiting Newcastle’s usual attacking success at home.

3. Opposition Tactical Analysis: Southampton

As Southampton prepares for the clash, they’re likely to rely on their 5-3-2 formation, which transitions into a 4-2-4 during offensive plays, capitalizing on compact defence and explosive counter-attacks.

• Exploiting the Wings: Newcastle's wide players, including Gordon and Murphy, need to leverage the spaces in Southampton's defence, particularly if they switch to a 4-3-2-1. By combining with overlapping fullbacks, they can outmanoeuvre their counterparts.

• Adapting to Southampton's Style: Newcastle’s forwards must engage in adaptive pressing to unsettle Southampton’s build-up play, capitalizing on Newcastle's strength in executing swift transitions from defence to attack.

• Dead Ball Situations: Both clubs demonstrate relative stability during dead ball scenarios, thus emphasizing further Newcastle’s need to exploit any set-piece vulnerabilities Southampton may exhibit.

4. Expected Key Battle: Isak vs. Southampton's Defence

A crucial factor in the upcoming fixture will be Alexander Isak's ability to exploit defensive gaps. Isak, has an average shot-creating action rate of 2.75 per 82 minutes and goal-creating action of 0.5 per 82 mins against comparable bottom-10 teams. Most of these shot creating actions against similar teams last season were drawn from capitalising on the space between opposition centre-backs. Against Southampton, his ability to quickly execute plays and precise touches in the attacking third can lead to increased chances and higher XG values for Newcastle and he will be one to watch if we are to win this game.

Chris